Trigger warning: Dyed-in-the-wool Democrats, liberals, leftists, and/or the excessively woke may find this post hazardous to their hopes, dreams, stereotypes, and/or prejudices and may wish to seek refuge in a safe space.
Figure 1. Representative Greg Walden (R-2nd-OR) confers with President Donald Trump. Source: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images.
Many of my friends rejoiced upon hearing the news that Representative Greg Walden (R-2nd-OR) will not seek re-election in 2020. I did not.
Walden, sixty-two, expressed confidence that he could be reelected but said “the time has come to pursue new challenges and opportunities.” It was either that or the alternative trope of wanting to “spend more time with my family.” Actually, each of these tropes is often the truth, even though brought about by the specter of a problematic re-election effort.
Walden has been elected to ten terms in the House of Representatives and has risen to positions of high power both in his party and in the House. He was chair of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee until the Democrats became the majority party in the 2018 election. Previously, he served as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee and is credited in 2014 with racking up the largest Republican majority since the Hoover administration. In 2016, he was credited with losing only a few seats. Walden left the position before the 2018 election that saw the return of Democrats to power.
After being in the majority—especially as chair of a full committee—being in the minority really sucks (a political term of art). Few, even ever-hopeful Republicans, see a path for their party to retake the House of Representatives in the 2020 elections.
Walden’s Environmental and Public Lands Legacy
Walden’s lifetime rating by the League of Conservation Voters for voting correctly on the environment and conservation is an appalling 9 percent—an order of magnitude less than almost all of the other members of the Oregon congressional delegation, who all happen to be Democrats. Walden has supported some really horrible legislation while in Congress. Yet, on federal public lands conservation, Walden’s record was a bit more nuanced in two instances: Steens Mountain and Mount Hood.
Steens Mountain
In 2000, Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt challenged the Oregon congressional delegation to enact legislation protecting Steens Mountain, promising that the alternative would be for President Clinton to protect it as a national monument before he left office the following January.
In the Senate, Senator Ron Wyden led the effort, which included a somewhat supportive Senator Gordon Smith (driven by fear of a Clintonian monument). In the House, Representative Earl Blumenauer (D-3rd-OR) of Portland introduced a fine bill, and Representative Peter DeFazio (D-4th-OR) also played a very constructive role. However, as Steens Mountain is in his district, Walden had to step up, and he did.
After a series of marathon negotiations at a ranch outside of Frenchglen, overseen by staff from Wyden’s and Walden’s offices, two conservationists (of which I was one) and two land and cattle barons reached an agreement that went on to be the Steens Mountain Act of 2000. It was a hard negotiation, not in any sense a collaboration. The land and cattle barons’ worst fears of a Clintonian national monument were greater than the conservationists’ best hopes for one, so a deal was reached that both sides felt was superior to a national monument.
Mount Hood
Early in the effort to elevate the conservation status of lands and rivers on and near Mount Hood, Representatives Blumenauer and Walden were very cooperative, even ambulatorily circumnavigating Mount Hood together on the thirty-six-mile Timberline Trail. Walden got a bill through the House and then stepped back as the center of attention moved to the Senate. In the end, Wyden, Smith, and Blumenauer all rightfully received credit for the Mount Hood Act of 2009, but I haven’t forgotten the initially constructive role Walden played in saving parts of greater Mount Hood.
Could Walden Be Re-Elected?
Walden was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1998, getting a very comfortable 61.5 percent of the vote. During his next eight elections, he never received less than 66.8 percent (2006) and peaked at 74.1 percent (2010). His average vote for his first nine races was 70 percent, about as safe a seat as one could ever wish for.
Then came 2018, when Walden received a mere (for him) 56.3 percent of the vote. On the left, a lot of people turned out to vote against President Trump, even though he wasn’t on the ballot. On the right, the Independent Party of Oregon candidate took 4.2 percent of the vote, running on a platform that included “Forestry, Forestry, and Forestry” (capitalization in the original). It wouldn’t have been a good kind of Forestry.
In politics, one is only as good as one’s last election. Walden probably could win in 2020, but it would require much more effort to get another term of being powerless in the minority. Life is too short.
What’s Next for Greg?
Richard Neuberger, before he became U.S. Senator Richard Neuberger (D-OR) from 1955 to his untimely death in 1960 at age forty-seven, was a noted journalist. He wrote an essay entitled “They Never Go Back to Pocatello” that described the phenomenon whereby when many federal elected officials either retire or are defeated for re-election, they never go home again. The piece was later included in a book of essays with that same title. (By the way, the majority of modern Idaho politicians did return home.)
Will Greg go home again? The coffee, beer, wine, and spirits have dramatically improved in Hood River, where he hails from, but lordy, the place now reeks of liberals. In 2018, Walden received only 33.8 percent of the vote in Hood River County. It’s very hard to walk down the street knowing that two out of three locals (forget about how the tourists feel) didn’t vote for you.
Although Donald Trump received only 4.1 percent of the vote in the District of Columbia in 2016, there are Republican enclaves to live in (usually outside the district) and some very friendly Republican bubbles, including on K Street NW, where many lobbyists hang their shingles. Walden, as a recovering committee chair with special expertise in telecommunications issues, could make a very good living post-Congress.
Before we bid him adieu, though, there is still time for Walden to leave a public lands conservation legacy. Senator Wyden and Representative Blumenauer have signaled their intentions to seek additional conservation protections for greater Mount Hood. Much of the area is in Walden’s district. Might it be possible to bring the old band back together for a bipartisan effort to protect greater Mount Hood for this and future generations?
In addition, Senator Jeff Merkley has introduced legislation to conserve the Sutton Mountain area in Wheeler County in the heart of the Oregon 2nd. How about companion legislation in the House of Representatives?
A Republican in the Oregon 2nd: Lesser of Two Evils
The single worst thing that could happen to efforts for increased conservation of federal public lands in Oregon’s second congressional district would be for retiring Republican Greg Walden to be replaced by a Democrat.
The good news is that the chances of a Democrat replacing Walden are quite low. I have long and repeatedly said, “If Jesus Christ ran as a Democrat in the Oregon 2nd, He would lose.” It would be the same result if He ran as a Republican in the Oregon 3rd (Representative Earl Blumenauer’s district).
The bad news is that many pro-environment Democrats and independents will be suckers for the fantasy and will spend money and time on a futile campaign that—if against all odds it were successful—would set back efforts to elevate the conservation status of the majority of federal public lands in Oregon. To understand why it would be so, you have to understand some things about the demographics and politics of the district.
In the 2012 election, the Oregon 2nd and the Oregon 3rd (and the 1st, the 4th, and the 5th) started out with equal populations. The Oregon 2nd encompasses 72 percent of the state’s land area and an even greater percentage of its federal public lands. In contrast, the Oregon 3rd (Blumenauer) encompasses less than 1 percent of the state’s land area.
Historically, though less so today, the House of Representatives has been deferential to the wishes of the affected member in matters pertaining to public lands in the member’s district. If the Oregon 2nd were held by a Democrat, given the politics of the district, it would in all likelihood be a Democrat whose first vote would be for the right person to be speaker of the House of Representatives but who wouldn’t be worth a damn on public lands issues.
Worse, fellow Democrats in the Oregon congressional delegation—and perhaps even the Speaker—would be protective of their fellow Democrat, even, if not especially, at the expense of the elevation of the conservation status of federal public lands in the Oregon 2nd.
If lightning did indeed strike in 2020 in the Oregon 2nd and a Democrat were elected (even the Democrat who came the closest to knocking off Greg Walden in 2018 isn’t up for a rematch, turning her sights to the office of Oregon Secretary of State), the chance of it being repeated in 2022 are vanishing small.
In the 2022 election, the Oregon legislature, which will be controlled by Democrats, will have redrawn Oregon’s congressional districts to account for the 2020 census. It is near certain that Oregon will get another congressional seat, for a total of six (Map 1).
Map 1. Oregon’s current five congressional districts. They will be redrawn in 2022 to account for the 2020 census, and a sixth district will likely be added. As of 2018, Oregon’s population has grown 9.5 percent since the 2010 census. Grant and Harney Counties have lost population, while the populations of Multnomah, Clackamas, and Washington Counties (all greater Portland and already the most populous counties) and Hood River and Deschutes Counties (both now in the Oregon 2nd) have seen an increase above the statewide average increase since 2010. It may be that the Democrats in 2022 include more or all of Josephine County (if not also Curry) in the Oregon 2nd, making it even larger in land area. Perhaps they will break longstanding tradition and no longer include the eastside counties of Hood River and Deschutes in the Oregon 2nd. Hood River County is part of the greater Portland metropolitan area, and—demographically—Deschutes County is more the easternmost extension of the Willamette Valley than any longer part of “eastern Oregon.” Source: National Atlas.
The Democrats will very likely draw a new Oregon 2nd District to include as many Republicans as possible so that Democrats can safely occupy the other five congressional seats, as has been the previous practice. Historically, the Oregon 2nd has always included the eighteen of Oregon’s thirty-six counties east of the Cascade Crest and as much land (actually people) west of the crest as needed to equalize population.
A Democrat in the Oregon 2nd: Taking the Pledge
Alas, no modern Oregon Republican is worth voting for, especially as most have abandoned any principles they once professed and are in the tank for President Trump. The last time I voted for Republicans was in 1986, when I voted for Norma Paulus and Bob Packwood.
The only way I would even consider contributing any money to a Democrat to run in the Oregon 2nd in 2020 would be if they took the following very public pledge:
I will
· publicly pledge to support millions of acres of wilderness protection and thousands of miles of wild and scenic river protection in my district (read my lips: no new logging);
· not buy a home in DC, as I likely won’t be there long enough to make it work;
· only campaign in three counties (Jackson, Deschutes, and Hood River), and I will fly between them, as driving just takes too long;
· not campaign in seventeen counties (Baker, Crook, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Jefferson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wasco, and Wheeler), as the few votes I might possibly get there are too few and far between;
· do broadcast media only in the Medford (Jackson and Josephine Counties), Bend (Deschutes, Jefferson, and Crook) and The Dalles (Wasco and Hood River) markets;
· not waste a moment doing worthless things like buying a cowboy costume and riding in the Pendleton (Umatilla) Roundup parade (yes, it’s a rush then, but I’ll regret it after the election);
· remember, if against all odds I do win, to dance with who brung me and not try to move wrongward in an attempt for re-election in what will likely be a redrawn district that is even worse for a progressive.
If I want to give money to a candidate for Congress where it won’t make any difference in that race, I will give it to Earl Blumenauer. His district is so safe—and he’s so in tune with his district—that he doesn’t need most of the money he raises. Instead he spends it helping Democrats who are running for other seats around the country so as to maintain a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.